Assessing the risk of train delays due to untimely clearing of railway tracks from snow at stations

Abstract

   The article analyzes technological violations committed due to untimely clearing of snow from railway tracks at stations. Based on statistical data, a graph was constructed depending on the number of violations and their duration. It has been established that in the Novosibirsk region over four winter periods from 2019 to 2023, about 40 % of the total number of stations are weather-sensitive and are at risk of train delays. The maximum number of violations was recorded at Ob station, while their maximum duration was observed at the Inskaya station.

   The main objective of the study is to assess the risk of train delays for reasons related to untimely clearing of snow from railway tracks at stations, by constructing a risk matrix and developing recommendations for its reduction.

   For the railway stations of the Novosibirsk region of the West Siberian Railway, the acceptable level of risk of train delays was 0.104 (train-hour)/year, which is consistent with regulatory documents. It was also determined that the actual level of risks in the region does not exceed the acceptable level. A matrix of risks of train delays due to reasons related to untimely clearing of snow from the railway tracks of stations has been constructed and stations have been identified whose risk level is recommended to be reduced: No. 1, 4, 8, 9, 11, 13, 16 and 20. For each risk level, recommendations have been developed aimed at reducing the frequency of violations and the duration of train delays. It was also possible to determine the boundaries of a broadly acceptable level of risk and railway stations that do not require the development of short-term risk reduction measures in the presence of violations.