Substantiation of a new methodology for forecasting the environmental consequences of man-made emergencies (fires and explosions) with dangerous goods in railway transport

   For the economy of the Russian Federation, the transportation of dangerous goods in international and domestic traffic plays an extremely important role. Natural gas (dangerous goods of class 2), ammonium nitrate fertilizers (dangerous goods of class 5), fuel elements (dangerous goods of class 7) and many other cargoes are supplied to dozens of countries around the world. All types of transport are involved in this process: pipeline, railway, automobile, river and sea, aviation. Incidents, accidents and catastrophes involving dangerous goods with severe consequences continue to occur on all modes of transport in almost all regions of the world. An analysis of a number of current accidents and emergencies, as a result of which not only critical or significant damage was caused to important transport infrastructure facilities, but also environmental damage to the population of adjacent territories, led us to the conclusion that the existing protection system is insufficient and it is necessary to develop new significant elements of it. Taking into account the new circumstances of the protection system in emergency situations with dangerous goods is, in our understanding, primarily in the prediction and management of fire and explosion modes of highly dangerous substances in order to reduce environmental and other negative consequences. Dangerous goods of Classes 1, 2 and 3, as a rule, have highly dangerous properties. Methodological flaws have been identified in assessing the impact of explosion and fire consequences of dangerous goods and minimizing their consequences. Based on characteristic examples, an attempt has been made to simulate the combustion and explosion of a dangerous cargo of vinyl chloride, calculate the amount of toxic products formed and the dangerous concentrations formed by them in the air of the emergency zone. Possible modes are considered and an estimated parameter is proposed – the calculated relative index of toxicity under various modes of destruction and conditions of combustion and dispersion of products. The expediency of developing a methodology for predicting the environmental consequences of man-made emergencies (fires and explosions) with dangerous goods is justified, the purpose of which is to develop additional protection measures in emergency situations, including protection of residents of residential areas, based on a model of formation of toxic products in a chemical reaction and their spread in the air.

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